Dubbaka By-Election in Telangana State: Situating in Larger Political Discourse Since 2014

                               

I

The Telangana State saw a by-election in the Dubbaka Legislative Assembly constituency in November 2020. Though the ruling government in the Telangana State is headed by the Telangana Rasthra Samithi (TRS) and kept enormous efforts to win over Dubbaka by-election; surprisingly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) contestant A Raghunandan Rao won. Dubbaka by-election gained significant attention due to various factors peculiarly unique to the Telangana State’s political atmosphere, especially when seen Telangana State’s political processes since year the 2014. In the year 2014 Telangana State came into the formal existence.

In the first election held after the Telangana State formation, though the TRS won and formed the government, the electoral verdict was highly fractured. Fractured in the sense, the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly had multi party space visibly, like having presence of political parties like the; TRS, BJP, Indian National Congress (INC), Telugu Desam Party (TDP), All India Masjlis-e-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (AIMIM), Yuvajana Rythu Sramika Congress Party (YSRCP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India Marxist (CPIM) etc. However, the TRS won the election with a slight majority and formed the government. Thus, the Telangana voters very cautiously gave their electoral verdict, choosing different parties.

II

In India or for that matter in most of the third world countries, due to the prevalent ‘First Past the Post electoral system and method’, any party which forms the government with simple majority is able to enjoy absolute power. Enjoyment of such absolute power also makes the political fortunes over-turn in due course of time, due to an edge enjoyed by the ruling party. In the same manner, though the TRS formed the government in the Telangana State with slight majority; the TRS Chief Kalvakuntala Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) became arrogant and moved his attempts to collapse opposition political parties like the INC and TDP. On certain ground it can also be concluded that most of the political parties elected representatives are non-committed in nature in maintaining their strong political and ideological affiliation with the parties from which they won.

As a result of KCR’s attempts to weaken the opposition, most of the opposition parties MLA’s joined into the fold of TRS, by claiming that only the TRS can develop the Telangana State. However, the ‘development slogan and claim’ made by the opposition defected MLA’s into the TRS were not genuinely trusted by the society. It was highly believed that opposition MLA’s defection into the TRS happened due to behind the scene transfer of kick-bags from the TRS to the defecting MLA’s.

III

The political commentators and analysts observed, at some level, that death of strong party ideologies was one of the prime factors for defection of the elected MLA’s from opposition to the ruling party. Thus, this observation was made in addition to believed possible transfer of behind the invisible scene kick-bags transfer from the ruling TRS party to the opposition defecting MLA’s. Other reasons seen for development of such defection culture include; political parties failure to choose and nurture strong party-men, leaders and contestants within the party structure.

Most of the political parties developed the culture of choosing businessmen as leaders to contest in the elections. As a result, the winning businessmen’s role and prospectus to perform as a politician and elected representative is getting highly jeopardized. As a result, due to various reasons, the opposition MLA’s preferring to defect into the ruling sect, if the situation so warrants. Such warranting situations were also developed by the ruling party by threatening the opposition elected representatives that they can be witch hunted by the investigative agencies on corruption allegation charges, if they don’t positively consider defecting into the ruling party! Thus, in the neo-liberal Indian political atmosphere, unusual political culture developed.

IV

From this background, the present case of the Telangana State politics should be understood.

Without tendering proper convincing justification, Chief Minister KCR moved ahead for second Legislative Assembly election by dissolving, prematurely. As a result, ahead of some five to six months before the scheduled lapse of the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly tenure lapse, elections were held for the second consecutive term.

Interestingly, KCR took such a step of conducting elections to the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly, in a cautious mode as observed by noted political commentators. The move was aimed at avoiding simultaneous elections to both the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies. It was reported that KCR had certain fear that if the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly elections were held along with the Lok Sabha constituencies then there was every possibility of performing poorly in the elections, especially to the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly. Because, capture of absolute majority on the floor of the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly was the first priority than performing well in the Lok Sabha constituencies for KCR and TRS; though KCR had aspiration to play crucial role in the national politics on behalf of the TRS.

Though KCR expected easy win over to the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly election for the second consecutive term, interestingly, in the middle of the election campaign process, KCR and TRS feared that political prospectus may over-turn. During prevalent contemporary times, high level election surveys were conducted frequently to ascertain the public pulse. It was observed that some of the psephology reports indicated that the TRS may not have an easy walk for the second consecutive term into the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly! However, as per some psephology observations, which emerged in disclosed and undisclosed modes, the TRS under KCR’s leadership took into consideration required corrective measures as part of effective poll management techniques. As a result, the TRS under KCR’s leadership emerged victorious. 

Since the year 2014 onwards, after KCR forged intensified efforts to collapse the opposition, it was highly observed that the opposition got marginalized in the Telangana State, since most of the elected opposition MLA’s defected into the ruling TRS. As a result of weak political opposition in the Telangana State, the TRS under KCR’s leadership was able to win over the second consecutive election to the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly.

V

KCR as TRS Chief was also able to successfully collapse even the Civil Society organizations and leaders. Mostly, KCR co-opted Civil Society leaders into the TRS fold after forming the first government in the Telangana State. As a result, visible strong challenging civil society voices and organizations are also absent in the Telangana State. Though some leaders like Prof Kodandaram Reddy forged enhanced efforts to revive and build strong network of Telangana civil society organizations, his efforts somehow failed to see desired light of the world.

Even, KCR government at times witch hunted persons like Prof Kodandaram Reddy in-order to curtail his active involvement in civil society and political activism. Surprisingly, though Prof Kodandaram Reddy did not join the TRS under KCR; he was seen as a shadow backbone operating in guise for revival of the Reddy’s reconsolidation under the INC leadership. Prof Kodandaram Reddy also failed to tender proper convincing reply and justification to such observed critique. He kept just mum and ignored silently such comments and political allegations. In politics, silence is analyzed in renewed manner, by attributing another level of possible attributes to believe. Hence, silence in political life is not always desirable and advisable. However, though, at last, Prof Kodandaram Reddy forged attempted to float a political party and desired to be successful, his wishes and attempts failed to yield desirable results.

Even after forming Telangana State’s second consecutive government with certain advantageous majority, KCR again forged efforts to weaken the opposition parties, especially the INC by capturing and absorbing INC MLA’s into the TRS fold.

VI

As a result of continuing weak political opposition and near collapse of the effective Civil Society leaders and organizations, it was believed and expected that the Dubbaka constituency electorate chose to prefer BJP’s candidate A Raghunandan Rao over TRS candidate contestant. In fact, in the year 2018 the Dubbaka electorate elected a TRS candidate as MLA. Upon that MLA’s death by-election was ensured to the Dubbaka Assembly constituency. Interestingly, in order to gain sympathy of the voters, the TRS fielded the widow of the deceased MLA’s wife. Even then, the result was negative to the TRS and included a feather in the Telangana’s BJP cap, as A Raghunandan Rao won!

Interestingly, after the year 2018 election to the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly; when elections to the Lok Sabha constituencies were held within a few months, the BJP performed impressively, though it failed to perform well in the Assembly election. The BJP just won one MLA to the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly held in the year 2018. However, within a few months of Lok Sabha elections, surprisingly, the BJP won four Lok Sabha seats. Thus, this indicated a great mismatch between the BJP performance in the recently concluded Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly election and Lok Sabha election. Political commentators read and interpreted this dimension in various modes, like;

·         Continued weakening prospectus of the INC at both the Telangana and national level.

·         The electorates’ choice of preference to chose and elect candidates according to the levels of representative bodies involved, like Assembly and Parliament.

·         The possible impact of the Balakot airstrike and counter retaliation measures initiated by the NDA government headed by the BJP under Narendra Modi’s Prime Minister-ship.

·         The over confidence of the TRS, as it won the recently held Assembly election and ability to co-opt any opposition elected representative after election, is seen a curse to the Telangana politics and political culture 

·         The usual effective Hindutva politics abilities and capabilities to work silently underground, but not openly. (Though political activity should be conducted openly and visibly!)

·         The electorate’s lack of faith on other weakened opposition parties like the INC, TDP, CPI, CPIM, etc. As a result, they saw the BJP as an effective opposition and not able to join the TRS after election. Thus, the BJP’s elected candidate’s strong ideological ground not able to easily jump over to the other political parties like the TRS also made the electorate to opt invariably BJP candidates as elected representatives.

Elections in India or for that matter in any democracy cannot be concluded on just one or two factors. The election results are a result of cumulative impact and perceptions developed by the voters over a period of time. Hence, factors like the above mentioned ones should be taken into comprehensive analysis for arriving at certain analytical conclusion.

VII

Even after the year 2018 election to the Telangana State’s Legislative Assembly and the TRS under KCR formed the government and after the year 2019 Lok Sabha elections and BJP’s impressive performance; again in the year 2019 another by-election to the Huzurnagar Assembly constituency was held. This by-election was ensured after the sitting INC MLA won over to the 2019 Lok Sabha. Hence, the INC had better hopes that it can easily win over the election. And, as per the track record of the Huzurnagar Assembly constituency elections, the INC mostly won the segment, historically. However, as a surprising shock to the INC and as an extended jubilant triumphant to the TRS, the TRS candidate won handsomely. BJP was no-where in the picture.

While the TRS campaigns and boots its sustained electoral performance was based on better administered governance and implemented best welfare schemes; in reality, the opposite critique from the civil society, media domain, opposition parties, etc. is that the TRS was not able to fulfill most of its promised agenda as part of the Telangana movement and the year 2014 election manifesto. Thus, a kind of great mis-match was seen between the TRS promises, declared election agenda, in reality implemented programmes; and people’s expectations based on Telangana movement promises and TRS election manifesto. However, the TRS was able to win over elections, due to weak opposition parties.

The political lacuna in the Telangana State is present, as per political analysts’ observation, due to the inability of required and possible failure to emerge renewed political wave; though a significant section of the opposition parties got weaken. As of the now, when seen the weakened political parties’ ideological inclinations and those parties’ actual voter base aspirations; it is believed that the cheated voter base aspirations were not fully represented either by the TRS or BJP.

VIII

The political parties like the TDP, INC, CPI, CPIM, YSRCP, etc. represented divergent political sections’ aspirations. However, though these parties’ leaders got merged with the TRS, these parties’ electoral base aspirations and interests are not fully represented and taken care of by the TRS and BJP. In fact, the BJP’s ideological leanings are entirely different and it’s usually impossible to the BJP to absorb certain sections into its fold. However, as of now, a renewed political wave is not emerging in the Telangana State, expressing concerns of the dissented sections. Same time, it is also expected that the TRS did not fully provided ideological and practical hope to such dissented political sections. How these dissented sections voice may emerge in renewed manner is yet to be observed.  

There are some sections of people who are expecting and guessing that the BJP may effectively grab the potential lacuna left out by the weakened opposition parties. However, the BJP in the Telangana State is not yet a formidable force to reckon with and sustain. Though the BJP won four Lok Sabha constituencies in the year 2019 election and won just one MLA in the 2018 Assembly election and another MLA now in the Dubbaka by-election; BJP is not yet seen as a formidable force in the Telangana State politics.

In order to visualize and recognize the BJP as a formidable force to reckon with, certain other factors should also be joining into the grip of analysis to make such observation. For instance, the BJP in the Telangana State is hoping to co-opt certain visibly advanced Backward Classes and handover leadership. In this respect, it is hoping on sections like the Kapu. Thus, it should be seen to what extent the Kapu’s leadership in the BJP and in the Telangana State will be accepted. At another level, the organizational structure and connectively of the BJP is also not well successful, so far, though strong organizational network is there for the BJP in the Telangana State. The prevalent BJP’s organizational structure is not successful in mobilizing and constructing public wave in favour of the BJP’s ideological agenda to capture political power and form the government. Other extended forces and factors support base and wave is also required to achieve such success.

In order to witness a strong political success to the BJP, various organizational structures of the BJP and Hindutva sections are usually required to forge their collective efforts. Such collective efforts seem to have been forged in certain recently held elections like during the year 2019 Lok Sabha elections and Dubbaka election. Yet, there are doubts on prime leadership acceptance in the Telangana State’s BJP. How can a visible strong leadership emerge in the Telangana State’s BJP is not well established, so far.

There are certain doubts and figures pointed out to the Telangana State BJP that certain level of potential group sections are inherently fighting over for prime leadership acceptance within the Telangana State’s BJP. Unless and other wise, a consolidated leadership with overall acceptance within the Telangana State’s BJP emerges to the forefront, the BJP cannot, usually win over major elections and form the government. Under absence of such enhanced concerted efforts collaborating failure to search for a better suitable leadership emergence, even if the Telangana State’s BJP is able to form government, it may not be able to provide able promising governance. Such inability may further result in decline of the Telangana State’s BJP or paves path for another new wave of entities to come to the forefront and capture power. This dynamic can be observed from the instance of neighboring Karnataka State, when the BJP lost the support base of the Yaddurappa B.S and Lingayat community for a brief while.

At another level, though both the INC and TDP, which were crucial players in the Telangana State, have got weakened significantly; to what extent these political parties can revive and reckon with in the Telangana State politics is yet to be seen from the future political prospectus.

As of now, it cannot be concluded that the TRS and BJP can dominate the Telangana State’s political scene. Such a scene is yet to emerge firmly and establish concretely on the political scenario. In fact, the biggest drawback for the TRS, as observed by the political analysts is that its future leadership prospectus is highly limited.

Though KCR has a politically established son, Kalvakuntala Taraka Rama Rao (KTR); TRS cadre and political analysts are expressing second thoughts on KTR’s real fortunes to lead the TRS effectively. Moreover, the TRS support base and leadership associates are also seen as temporary boom. TRS party and the TRS government since the year 2014 onwards is heavily dependent on the Reddy community. Thus, though the Reddy’s are massively associated with the INC, traditionally; due to emerged political situation in the Telangana movement and an edge present to the TRS, the Reddy leadership in the Telangana State has shifted its base to the TRS. Thus, the TRS has no strong leadership base, its present leadership base, especially elected representatives, are highly untrustworthy and cannot be regarded as genuinely associated with the TRS based on strong ideological affiliation and emotional political commitment.